Guinea coach Paulo Duarte has questioned the structure of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign after his side opened Group D with a 2-1 defeat to South Africa.
Duarte’s frustration goes beyond losing his first qualifying match.
The Guinea coach believes the composition of Group D creates an unusual situation because Kenya, one of the tournament’s co-hosts, is already guaranteed a place at the 2027 AFCON finals.
That leaves South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea competing for the remaining qualification place in the group. CAF’s official regulations confirm that only the highest-ranked team apart from Kenya will qualify from Group D.
For Duarte, that is the heart of the problem.
Why Duarte is unhappy with Group D
Group D contains South Africa, Guinea, Kenya and Eritrea.
At first glance, it looks like an ordinary four-team qualifying group. The difference is Kenya’s status as a co-host.
Kenya does not need to qualify through the group because it already has its place at the finals. As a result, the other three nations effectively have one qualification ticket between them.
That is different from most of the other qualifying groups, where the top two teams qualify.
CAF’s format means the same situation applies in the groups containing Uganda and Tanzania, the other two co-hosts.
Duarte had already criticised this arrangement before the qualifiers began, arguing that the teams placed alongside host nations do not have exactly the same qualification opportunity as teams in other groups.
His concerns returned to the spotlight after Guinea’s defeat in Johannesburg.
South Africa’s victory made the situation more difficult for Guinea
Guinea’s campaign could hardly have started in a more demanding way.
They travelled to South Africa and suffered a 2-1 defeat in the opening Group D fixture on September 26.
That immediately leaves Guinea without a point while South Africa move to the top of the group after the first round of matches.
Speaking after the match, Duarte described the group as open but questioned the way it had been drawn.
The coach said he did not believe the arrangement involving Kenya, Eritrea and South Africa was fair.
That does not change the result, but it explains why the Guinea coach believes the bigger issue is the competition structure rather than simply his team’s defeat.
The fixture schedule is another concern
Duarte’s criticism also extends to the timing of the matches.
Guinea’s opening game was away to South Africa, followed by a home match against Kenya on October 1.
That means the Guinean squad has only a short period to recover, travel back to West Africa and prepare for another important qualifier. CAF’s published schedule confirms the two fixtures are separated by only five days.
The distance involved makes that particularly significant.
Guinea are based on the western side of the continent, while South Africa is thousands of kilometres away. Duarte previously argued that the international window could have allowed more recovery time between the competitive fixtures.
For international coaches, this is not a minor detail.
Players arrive from their clubs at different times, teams have limited training opportunities and long-distance travel can consume a significant part of an international window.
What Duarte’s complaint means for South Africa
Duarte’s comments are also relevant to Bafana Bafana.
South Africa now know exactly what is at stake in Group D.
Because Kenya already has a place at the tournament, second place is not enough for the other teams. The highest-ranked team among South Africa, Guinea and Eritrea will take the available qualifying position.
That puts extra importance on the head-to-head matches between the three competing nations.
South Africa’s 2-1 victory over Guinea therefore represents more than three points. It gives Bafana an early advantage in a group where there is effectively only one qualifying ticket available to the non-host teams.
But the campaign is still far from over.
Duarte still believes Guinea can qualify
Despite his criticism, Duarte has not written off Guinea’s chances.
The defeat leaves the Syli National with plenty of work to do, but the qualifying campaign consists of six matchdays and Guinea still have home and away fixtures remaining against their Group D opponents.
The immediate priority will be recovering from the South Africa defeat and responding against Kenya.
That match could become particularly important because Kenya, while already guaranteed a place at the finals, can still affect the final standings by taking points from the other teams.
The bigger question for CAF
Duarte’s comments have opened a wider discussion about the qualifying format.
The issue is not whether Kenya deserves to host the tournament — its automatic qualification is a consequence of being a co-host.
The question is whether placing an automatically qualified host inside a conventional qualifying group creates a different competitive environment for the remaining teams.
CAF has officially chosen this format for the 2027 qualifiers, with the host nations participating in the groups while only one other team advances from each host’s group.
Whether that should be changed is ultimately a matter for CAF.
For Guinea, however, there is little time to debate the format.
They now have to find a way to recover from the loss to South Africa.
Duarte may not be happy with the way Group D was constructed, but Guinea’s route to AFCON 2027 is now clear: finish above South Africa and Eritrea.
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